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Carlo Pelanda: 2015-4-0H Edition

2015-4-0

4/2015

The need for a positive prophecy

In Financial Operations Rooms there is euphoria, by contrast, in think-tanks dedicated to long-term scenarios, there is concern. In the latter, increased use of robotic and computer systems instead of human labour (the new normality characterized by stagnation in Western economies), the unlikelihood that public debts will be paid off, plus the narrowing of the global area where economic and financial operations can be carried out with decent risk control are being discussed. In the think-tanks I attend, I recommend not overemphasising the negative scenarios which suggest an implosive future. This is for two reasons. The first, comes from the lesson learned from the mistakes of the Club of Rome, and other similar cases in the ‘70s, which assumed limits to development, based on projections which didn’t take into account the ameliorative variables that later occurred. Whilst they didn’t stop the drive of technological capitalism and development, they did contain it which supported an anti-capitalist reaction, fuelling the birth of restrictive rules and a culture where prudence was more important than innovation - a lethal virus for technological capitalism. The second reason is related to first: if the market discounts the remote scenarios
prevailing today, it could lose momentum and the technical liquidity it has available wouldn’t find a psychological multiplier able to have a growth effect in America and Europe. But does it make sense to aid recovery by separating market and thought, as well as short and long-term scenarios, so that a lack of awareness could create more active, eager and bold economic players? It would make sense if central banks could maintain quantitative easing indefinitely, but this would be impossible. Therefore, the right strategy is to counter negative prophecies, as these are a result of restrictive thought and not anticipations of reality. The market moment: the West’s recovery lacks the driving force of an optimistic prophecy that shows a future from which to extract wealth in the present. Perhaps in the Western think-tanks and universities we should start to design new solutions rather than to sadly refine the growing list of problems.

(c) 2015 Carlo Pelanda
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(c) 1999 Carlo Pelanda
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